IE3 Premium Efficiency Revenues Accelerating Rapidly, Set to Overtake IE1 in 2018

IE3超高效电机增长迅速，将在2018年超越IE1

Often times, government regulations rarely translate into tremendous revenue growth in a global market however, this is not the case in the integral horsepower low voltage (LV) motor market where revenues for IE3 Premium Efficiency (and the equivalent NEMA Premium?) are on course to almost double by 2018 to over $8,000 million globally. Major LV motor markets are becoming more and more regulated towards IE2 and IE3 motors, as this dynamic has signaled that the eminent decline of the lowest efficiency class motor market, IE1, has begun in earnest.

很多时候，在一个全球性的市场，政府法规很少转化为巨大的收入增长，但在整数马力低压电机市场，情况并非如此，IE3超高效（相当于NEMA Premium）电机的全球营收到2018年将超过80亿美元，几乎翻一倍。低压电机的主要市场正变得越来越规范，以IE2和IE3电机为主，这一动态也暗示着，最低能效等级的IE1电机市场，开始正式大幅下降。

The IE1 market is currently the largest regulated LV motor market in the world in terms of revenues and units, with the majority concentrated in the Asia Pacific, the Russian Federation & CIS, and smaller markets where no energy efficiency regulations exist. Major regions have been shifting out of the IE1 market since the US began in 2002, and this has catalyzed revenue growth in the form of more expensive IE2 and IE3 LV motors being sold than in previous years. Typically, a regional transition to the next higher efficiency class of LV motor can take six years or more after the official start date has been announced, with the peak of the transition occurring in year three or four. Such is the case with the IE3 market, as the US and Canada are currently phasing out IE2 and IE1 motors, with the European Union, Japan and China following suit in 2015, late 2016, and 2017, respectively. Analyst Mark Meza states “IE3 revenues have been growing at 3-digit rates since 2010, as the current IE3 markets are fortuitously located in regional markets that have been quick to recover from the global recession, and have not experienced further economic difficulties as seen in the IE2 markets of the European Union and Brazil over the past few years.”

就营收和数量而言，IE1是目前全球最大的低压调节电机市场，大部分集中在亚太、俄罗斯联邦和独联体等地区，以及没有能效法规监管的小型市场。随着美国从2002年开始主要区域逐渐摆脱IE1市场，销售的是相比前几年更昂贵的IE2和IE3 低压电机，从而推动了营收的增长。通常情况下，一个地区要升级到更高能效等级的低压电机，从正式开始日期算起，可能需要6年以上的时间，其中第3年或第4年是升级的高峰。IE3市场就是这样的情况，美国和加拿大目前正在逐步淘汰IE2和IE1电机，欧盟、日本和中国争相效仿，将分别在2015年、2016年末和2017年淘汰。分析师Mark Meza指出，“自2010年以来，IE3收入取得了3位数的增长率，因为目前IE3市场有的处于已迅速从全球经济衰退中复苏的地区市场，而且也没有经历过比IE2市场过去几年里在欧盟和巴西所经历过的更大的经济困难。”

In 2017, the rapidly ascending IE3 market is forecast to be almost equal in revenues to the outgoing IE1 market. At this point in time, IHS predicts that the two motor segments will be headed in opposite directions. It is interesting to note that while revenues for IE3 will overtake IE1 revenues in 2017, units for IE1 are still predicted to be double the units in the IE3 market. Meza adds “From the revenue and units comparison of these two markets over time, it is clear to see the revenue-enhancing effect of energy efficiency regulations that operate independently of the market’s demand.” According to growth forecasts, high revenue growth in the IE3 market will begin to cool off significantly in North America just as it begins to heat up in the Eurozone, Japan and China barring any further major economic downturns to these newest players in the IE3 market.

到2017年，预计增长迅速的IE3电机市场将在销售额方面追上逐步淘汰的IE1市场。在这个时间点上，IHS预测，这两个等级电机市场的发展将背道而驰。值得注意的是，虽然IE3收入将在2017年超过IE1，但预计IE1的电机数量仍将是IE3的两倍。Meza补充说：“通过比较这两个市场在一段时间的销售额和数量，可以清楚地看到能效法规对增加销售额的作用，这一作用也独立关系着市场需求。”根据增长预测，IE3市场的销售额高增长将开始在北美地区显著放缓，同时，欧元区、日本和中国，在排除了任何进一步的重大经济衰退之后，这些IE3电机的最新市场开始升温。